Hit Task Percentage: DCMA Schedule Health Metric

<div class="ge-article-wrapper"><nav class="ge-toc" aria-label="Table of contents"><p class="ge-toc-label">In this article</p><ul class="ge-toc-list"><li><a href="#the-formula">The Formula</a></li><li><a href="#how-hit-rate-differs-from-spi">How Hit Rate Differs From SPI</a></li><li><a href="#worked-example-highway-resurfacing-programme">Worked Example: Highway Resurfacing Programme</a></li><li><a href="#why-hit-rate-matters-in-construction">Why Hit Rate Matters in Construction</a></li><li><a href="#dcma-schedule-health-thresholds">DCMA Schedule Health Thresholds</a></li><li><a href="#common-mistakes">Common Mistakes</a></li><li><a href="#frequently-asked-questions">Frequently Asked Questions</a></li></ul></nav><article class="ge-article-body"><p>Hit rate, formally called hit task percentage, measures the percentage of tasks that finish on or before their baseline finish date. That's it. No complex formula. No weighting. Just a blunt question: of all the tasks that should be done by now, how many actually are?</p><p>It's part of the <a href="/en/earned-value/definitions">earned value definitions glossary</a> and one of the 14 schedule health metrics in the DCMA (Defense Contract Management Agency) assessment framework. For context on how hit rate connects to broader schedule performance, see the <a href="/en/earned-value/definitions/schedule-performance-index">SPI definition</a> and the <a href="/en/earned-value/s-curve-tracking">S-curve tracking guide</a>.</p><h2 id="the-formula">The Formula</h2><div class="ge-formula-box ge-anim"><span class="ge-formula-label">Formula</span><code>Hit Rate = (Tasks completed on or before baseline finish) / (Tasks with baseline finish on or before the status date) x 100</code></div><p>The DCMA threshold is straightforward: anything below 80% is a red flag. Below 70% and the programme is considered unreliable as a planning tool.</p><p>I've seen teams celebrate an SPI of 0.96 while their hit rate is sitting at 62%. How? Because SPI is weighted by cost. A few high-value tasks finished early can mask dozens of smaller tasks running late. Hit rate doesn't care about cost. Every task counts equally. That's what makes it useful, and uncomfortable.</p><h2 id="how-hit-rate-differs-from-spi">How Hit Rate Differs From SPI</h2><p>This is the distinction most people miss.</p><p><a href="/en/earned-value/definitions/schedule-performance-index">SPI</a> measures cost-weighted schedule performance: SPI = <a href="/en/earned-value/definitions/earned-value">EV</a> / <a href="/en/earned-value/definitions/planned-value">PV</a>. If you've earned £8M of value against £8.5M planned, SPI = 0.94. But that single number hides whether it's three tasks or three hundred that are late.</p><p>Hit rate counts tasks, not pounds. It exposes the breadth of schedule slippage. A project can have a healthy SPI and a terrible hit rate simultaneously, and that combination tells you something specific: a small number of high-value activities are propping up the numbers while the broader programme is falling apart.</p><pre class="ge-ascii-diagram ge-anim"> SCHEDULE HEALTH COMPARISON =========================== SPI (cost-weighted) Hit Rate (task count) ┌──────────────────┐ ┌──────────────────────────────────┐ │ │ │ Tasks due by Month 8: 20 │ │ EV = £8.00M │ │ │ │ PV = £8.50M │ │ T1 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ │ │ T2 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ SPI = 0.94 │ │ T3 [DONE] 2 wks early HIT │ │ │ │ T4 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ "Looks OK" │ │ T5 [LATE] 3 wks late MISS │ │ │ │ T6 [LATE] 1 wk late MISS │ └──────────────────┘ │ T7 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ T8 [LATE] 5 wks late MISS │ SPI says 94% of │ T9 [DONE] on time HIT │ planned value earned. │ T10 [LATE] 2 wks late MISS │ │ T11 [DONE] on time HIT │ Hit rate says only │ T12 [DONE] 1 wk early HIT │ 65% of tasks finished │ T13 [LATE] 4 wks late MISS │ on schedule. │ T14 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ T15 [LATE] 1 wk late MISS │ Both are true. │ T16 [DONE] on time HIT │ Only one shows the │ T17 [DONE] on time HIT │ programme is sick. │ T18 [LATE] 6 wks late MISS │ │ T19 [DONE] on time HIT │ │ T20 [LATE] 2 wks late MISS │ │ │ │ HITS: 12 MISSES: 8 │ │ │ │ Hit Rate = 12/20 = 60% FAIL │ │ (DCMA threshold: 80%) │ └──────────────────────────────────┘ </pre><h2 id="worked-example-highway-resurfacing-programme">Worked Example: Highway Resurfacing Programme</h2><span class="ge-worked-label">Worked Example</span><div class="ge-callout ge-anim"><p><strong>Scenario:</strong> A £22M NEC4 Option C highway resurfacing programme across 14 sections in the West Midlands. The baseline programme has 340 activities. At the status date of 14 March 2025 (month 8 of 18), the planner runs a hit rate analysis.</p><p><strong>Data:</strong></p><ul><li>Total tasks with baseline finish on or before 14 March 2025: <strong>150</strong></li><li>Tasks completed on or before their baseline finish date: <strong>112</strong></li><li>Tasks completed late (after baseline finish): <strong>28</strong></li><li>Tasks not yet complete (should have finished by now): <strong>10</strong></li></ul><p><strong>Hit Rate = 112 / 150 = 74.7%</strong></p><p>This is below the DCMA 80% threshold. But the SPI at the same date? It's 0.93. Why the discrepancy?</p><p>Digging into the data, three high-value sections (total budget £6.2M) completed ahead of schedule, earning significant EV early. Meanwhile, 38 smaller tasks, traffic management setups, utility liaison activities, environmental permits, are running late. Each one is small in cost terms. Together, they represent a programme-wide coordination problem that SPI completely obscures.</p><p>The Project Manager investigates and finds the coordination failures are stacking up downstream. Two sections can't start because enabling works aren't complete. The hit rate flagged this three months before SPI would have caught it.</p><p><strong>Action:</strong> The team re-sequences 15 activities, adds an additional traffic management crew, and targets a hit rate of 85% by month 12.</p></div><h2 id="why-hit-rate-matters-in-construction">Why Hit Rate Matters in Construction</h2><p>Construction programmes are networks. A late enabling task doesn't just mean one activity slips. It cascades. Hit rate catches this cascade early.</p><p>On a £40M infrastructure project with 600+ activities, I'd argue hit rate is more useful than SPI for the first 60% of the programme. SPI tells you the financial picture. Hit rate tells you the operational picture. Both matter, but if you can only look at one metric in a progress meeting, pick hit rate until the final third when SPI and schedule variance at completion become more actionable.</p><p>The other reason hit rate matters: it's almost impossible to game. You can manipulate SPI by front-loading high-value activities. You can't manipulate hit rate without actually finishing tasks on time. It's democracy in a metric, every task gets one vote.</p><h2 id="dcma-schedule-health-thresholds">DCMA Schedule Health Thresholds</h2><div class="ge-table-wrap ge-anim"><table class="ge-table"><thead><tr><th>Metric</th><th>Green</th><th>Amber</th><th>Red</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Hit task percentage</td><td>> 80%</td><td>70-80%</td><td>< 70%</td></tr><tr><td>Critical path length index (CPLI)</td><td>> 1.0</td><td>0.95-1.0</td><td>< 0.95</td></tr><tr><td>Baseline execution index (BEI)</td><td>> 80%</td><td>70-80%</td><td>< 70%</td></tr><tr><td>SPI</td><td>> 0.95</td><td>0.90-0.95</td><td>< 0.90</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Hit rate below 70% on three consecutive reporting periods is a formal trigger for a programme recovery plan in most government contracts. On commercial UK construction, we don't have that contractual mechanism, but the logic still holds. A programme that's hitting less than 70% of its milestones isn't a programme. It's a wish list.</p><h2 id="common-mistakes">Common Mistakes</h2><p><strong>Only counting critical path tasks.</strong> Hit rate should include all tasks, not just critical ones. The point is to measure programme-wide discipline. Limit it to the critical path and you're just measuring SPI with extra steps.</p><p><strong>Using current dates instead of baseline dates.</strong> If you re-baseline the programme and measure hit rate against the new dates, you've given yourself credit for slippage. Hit rate must be measured against the original baseline finish dates. Always.</p><p><strong>Ignoring LOE activities.</strong><a href="/en/earned-value/definitions/level-of-effort">Level of Effort</a> tasks (like site supervision) always hit their dates because they're time-based, not output-based. Including them inflates hit rate. Strip them out or report hit rate with and without LOE separately.</p><p><strong>Not investigating the misses.</strong> A hit rate of 75% tells you there's a problem. It doesn't tell you what the problem is. Are the misses clustered in one work package? One location? One subcontractor? The number is a trigger for investigation, not a diagnosis.</p><div class="ge-product-note ge-anim"><p><strong>How Gather helps.</strong> Gather's AI reads your site diaries daily and maps progress against your cost-loaded programme, giving you accurate earned value data without manual spreadsheet updates. <a href="https://gatherinsights.com/contact">Book a demo</a> to see it working on a live NEC4 project.</p></div><h2 id="frequently-asked-questions">Frequently Asked Questions</h2><h3>What's an acceptable hit rate on a UK construction project?</h3><p>Aim for 80% or above. On a well-managed NEC4 programme with an Accepted Programme baseline, 85-90% is achievable. Below 70% and the programme needs fundamental intervention. Between 70-80% is where most real projects sit. Not great, but recoverable with focused attention on the repeat offenders.</p><h3>How often should hit rate be calculated?</h3><p>Monthly, at the same time as your <a href="/en/earned-value">earned value</a> metrics. Some teams calculate it fortnightly on high-risk programmes. The key is consistency, compare hit rate across periods to see if programme discipline is improving or degrading.</p><h3>Can hit rate improve even if SPI gets worse?</h3><p>Yes. If you start finishing more tasks on time but the late ones happen to be high-value, hit rate improves while SPI drops. This usually means the operational discipline is tightening but you've got a specific problem on one or two critical packages. That's actually useful information. It narrows the investigation.</p><h3>Does hit rate apply to NEC4 Accepted Programmes?</h3><p>Absolutely. On NEC4, the Accepted Programme provides the baseline finish dates. Every time the programme is re-accepted, you get a new baseline. Measure hit rate against whichever baseline is current. If you want trend analysis across programme revisions, maintain hit rate against both the original and current baselines.</p></article></div>